Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-30 0.126067 0.141600 0.158358 0.177794 0.199728 0.223732 0.252017
2025-12-07 0.094841 0.113872 0.135858 0.163175 0.196266 0.235128 0.284342
2025-12-14 0.074934 0.095536 0.120852 0.154339 0.197609 0.251823 0.325203
2025-12-21 0.060482 0.081515 0.108885 0.147265 0.199950 0.270110 0.371255
2025-12-28 0.051686 0.073397 0.103213 0.147400 0.211653 0.302351 0.441271
2026-01-04 0.043497 0.064838 0.095656 0.143750 0.217571 0.327660 0.506257
2026-01-11 0.037588 0.058649 0.090542 0.142815 0.227292 0.360067 0.587702
2026-01-18 0.033185 0.054066 0.087135 0.143927 0.240330 0.399676 0.687788
2026-01-25 0.028057 0.047555 0.079733 0.137419 0.239894 0.417376 0.754595
2026-02-01 0.023673 0.041633 0.072436 0.129929 0.236526 0.429475 0.813742
2026-02-08 0.020520 0.037381 0.067382 0.125587 0.238038 0.450440 0.893185
2026-02-15 0.017831 0.033578 0.062586 0.120961 0.238237 0.468922 0.971210
2026-02-22 0.016246 0.031670 0.061136 0.122756 0.251756 0.516615 1.120625
2026-03-01 0.014148 0.028477 0.056780 0.118114 0.251517 0.536574 1.215392
2026-03-08 0.012585 0.026130 0.053773 0.115799 0.255862 0.567140 1.340760
2026-03-15 0.011241 0.024043 0.051005 0.113564 0.260040 0.598190 1.474246
2026-03-22 0.010460 0.023047 0.050400 0.116032 0.275395 0.657665 1.690511
2026-03-29 0.009498 0.021516 0.048404 0.114985 0.282263 0.698260 1.867735
2026-04-05 0.008766 0.020403 0.047198 0.115630 0.293450 0.751724 2.091815
2026-04-12 0.008195 0.019588 0.046569 0.117604 0.308418 0.817831 2.366820
2026-04-19 0.007309 0.017890 0.043590 0.113127 0.305587 0.836028 2.507107
2026-04-26 0.006471 0.016198 0.040395 0.107589 0.298929 0.842546 2.614132
2026-05-03 0.005849 0.014973 0.038215 0.104451 0.298513 0.866911 2.783455